Since independence, Indian healthcare has made steady progress. Our life expectancy is much higher, we supply the world with pharmacy and vaccines, and our healthcare industry has some of the best capabilities available anywhere in the world (and is a medical tourism destination). We also have a high-quality, low-cost, high-volume care model in the pioneering Arvind Eye system. India takes a holistic approach to health and wellness through yoga and Ayurveda.
Robotics (in surgery), nanotechnology, biotechnology (in precision and personalized medicines/treatment), AI/ML (in image recognition & diagnosis), augmented reality (in better visualization & training), telemedicine, and wearables will all advance in maturity and use. These will result in a few broad trends that will shape Indian healthcare in 2047.
Change from the current OOP (out-of-pocket) dependence to a more public and insurance-funded model:
Today, approximately 60% of health expenditure in India is out-of-pocket (OOP), a higher proportion when compared to economies such as China (30%) and Brazil (25%). The government has committed to increasing its budgetary allocations from 1% to 2.5% of GDP by 2025 and has launched the Ayushman Bharath scheme. The demand for private health insurance will continue to rise.
The future healthcare business model will be markedly different from the current one, shaped by technology and India’s specific requirements:
Better telecom connectivity, easier availability of home diagnostic devices (e.g., pulse oximeters, blood pressure monitors, etc.), increased comfort with teleconsultation (of both doctors and patients, aided by Covid), and India’s geographic spread will shift primary care to remote/ tele delivery – According to experts
Alternative business models for tertiary care will emerge. Due to high fixed costs (on equipment, beds, rooms, etc.) and doctor availability, today’s tertiary care is characterized by large multi-specialty hospitals. Many procedures will be moved to daycare as precision surgery improves. Robotics and VR/AR advancements will enable remote robotic procedures, altering the nature of the procedure.
The pharmaceutical industry must prepare for the transition from mass chemistry to personalized biology-based treatments. India is a global leader in pharmaceutical exports and has extensive chemistry expertise. India has also made a start in biosimilars, which will likely expand rapidly in the coming years. With rapid advances in biotechnology (CRISPR, for example) and nanotechnology, we can expect treatments to become more precise and personalized. India’s pharmaceutical industry will need to develop smaller batches, of individual products. Diagnostics and monitoring, as we know them, will change: Covid has taught us self-testing. Wearables and point-of-care diagnostics are rapidly evolving, with the ability to monitor an increasing number of body parameters. India’s Digital Health Mission will increase EHR (electronic health records) adoption and enable
